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Survivor count: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 16:03, 29 October 2023

Battlestar Wiki Story Arc Logo
This article involves the survivor count of the refugees in the Re-imagined Series. For a count of losses and gains in the Fleet incurred during the Original Series, see: Fleet population.
 Battlestar Wiki Story Arc Logo


The number of surviving Colonial citizens and military in the fleet was provided at intervals throughout the first season on a whiteboard on Colonial One, and in one instance spoken aloud in dialogue. In the second season, this number appears in the opening credits of every episode (sometimes jokingly referred to as the "Countdown to Extinction"), and displays limited omniscience, updating itself to reflect the deaths on Kobol early in that season. This page collects the figures available thus far, cross-referenced with date information from Timeline (RDM).

Graph

All dates up until 51 are exact, 51-950 use estimates below, all tallies past 950 use an average of 5 days between counts (it averages out)

Data

Season 1

Zero Hour

Day 6

  • 33
    • 50,298 - Initial estimate.
    • 49,998 - Revised count. A decrease of 300.
    • 49,317 - Second revision. A decrease of 618 (cut scene, DVD).
    • 47,972 - A loss of 1345 after destruction of the Olympic Carrier.
    • 47,973 - One birth aboard the Rising Star.

Day 10

  • Water
    • 47,958 - A net loss of 15.

Day 15

Day 25

Day 28

Day 48

Day 50

Day 51

Season 2

Day 54 (est.)

Day 60 (est.)

  • The Farm
    • 47,857 - Four civilians massacred by marine strike team aboard the Gideon.

Dates Unknown

Day 86 (est.)

Dates Unknown

Day 189

  • Epiphanies
    • 49,598 - Deaths of Admiral Helena Cain and an unnamed marine guard on Pegasus. The remaining casualty count of four is conspicuously low given the scope of the battle depicted in the previous episode.

Dates Unknown

  • Black Market
    • 49,597 - The death of a suicide bomber on the Daru Mozu. Based on dialogue, the attack took the lives of the bomber and at least two civilians. This may have been offset by births in between the two episodes. The death of Jack Fisk was shown in the teaser of Black Market, and should be counted in the opening credits.
  • Scar
    • 49,593 - Deaths of Commander Jack Fisk, Fisk's assassin, Phelan, and one other person, presumably Beano. It is unclear where the death of Beano, the first of four pilots killed by Scar is counted. Since much of the episode, including the deaths of the four pilots killed by Scar, is shown in flashback.

c. Day 210

c. Day 240

Between c. Day 240 and c. Day 270

  • Razor ( Present events)
    • 49,579 - confirms closing count from "The Captain's Hand".

c. Day 270

  • Downloaded
    • 49,579 - confirms closing count from "The Captain's Hand". The count is either not updated to reflect the deaths of Kendra Shaw and Dasilva in "Razor" or there were births that offset those deaths.
  • Lay Down Your Burdens, Part I
    • 49,579 - No change since "Downloaded". It is unclear how the birth of Hera is counted. Her birth appears to be offset by the death of Maya's child. Maya's child seems to be the one seen in the incubator, and whose ashes are spread out of a Raptor by Helo and Tyrol.

c. Day 280

During the Settlement of New Caprica (from c. Day 280 to c. Day 660)

  • Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II
    • After the "One Year Later" time jump later in the episode, the population of New Caprica City is given as 39,192. This includes separated military personnel, but does not include military and civilians in the small fleet orbiting the planet.
  • Precipice
    • According to Lee Adama, about 2,000 civilians escaped with the ships in orbit of New Caprica.
    • Adama also states that both Galactica and Pegasus are at half strength (this can't be taken literally).
      • A careful crew tally establishes that, at full strength, Galactica is crewed by about 2,808 people and Pegasus by about 2,445.
      • The same tally indicates that immediately prior to the one-year jump, Galactica was crewed by about 2,600 people, and Pegasus by about 1,700. At half-strength, this puts the minimum number of military personnel at about 2,200.
    • This puts our estimate of the total human population at roughly 43,400 (39,192 + 2000 + 2200)
    • Subtracting from the figure of 49,550 given in "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II", this means that the total population fell by about 6150 people during the one-year gap. The majority of these deaths probably happened as a result of the destruction of Cloud Nine and the surrounding vessels.
For a confirmation of these estimates with more accurate numbers see the "Crossroads, Part I" section

Season 3

During the Occupation of New Caprica (from c. Day 660 to c. Day 798)

  • An unknown number of people died in the insurgency and Cylon retaliation. However this must be offset by additional births during this four month time span. Accurately tracking the population numbers is impossible at this point, but known casualty figures are given below:
  • c. Day 729
  • c. Day 794
  • c. Day 796
    • Precipice - suicide bombing at the power substation kills 4 humans. Three resistance fighters die in the ambush at Breeders Canyon.
  • c. Day 798
    • Exodus, Part II - numerous casualties during the evacuation of New Caprica, including Maya. Ellen Tigh is poisoned by her husband for collaborating with the Cylons, but as she is a Cylon herself her death is not counted.

c. Day 800

  • Collaborators
    • 41,435 - Fleet population as of the third day of the Second Exodus. Given the above numbers, the death toll of the resistance and the Battle of New Caprica is about 2000 people. Given the total in the next episode, this figure does not reflect the 13 collaborators executed by the Circle between this episode and the last.
    • Several hundred children might have been born on New Caprica. Since they are also included in the count, the Fleet has lost more older and able-bodied people than apparent.

c. Day 830

  • Torn
    • 41,422 - Figure now reflects the 13 collaborators executed by the Circle. No deaths occur in this episode.

c. Day 831

c. Day 935

c. Day 950

Dates Unknown

  • The Son Also Rises
    • 41,399 - Death of Kara Thrace in the prior episode, and Alan Hughes at the end of this episode's teaser. Hughes' death is either not counted, offset by a birth, or Thrace's death is not counted.
  • Crossroads, Part I
    • Unknown, as there is no intro for this episode.
    • The following numbers are given during Baltar's trial by Cassidy: 44,035 - the number who settled on New Caprica; 38,838 - the number the day after the escape. However the number of escapees can only refer to the civilian population of the Fleet, and despite talking specifically about the people who settled on New Caprica, this number includes the total population, including those in orbit.
    • This contradictory wording is a writing error, but interpreting them slightly differently confirms the estimates from "Precipice":
      • 41,435 (Collaborators) - 38,838 = 2,597 (the military personnel in the Fleet)
      • 44,035 - 39,192 (the inhabitants of New Caprica City) = 4,835 (the total population left in orbit)
      • 4,835 - 2,597 = 2,238 (in "Precipice" Lee Adama refers to roughly 2,000 civilians who escaped New Caprica)
      • 49,550 (count in "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II") - 39,192 - 4,835 = 5,523 (the death toll prior to the occupation, mostly incurred with the destruction of Cloud Nine)
      • 49,550 - 5,523 - 41,435 = 2,592 (the causalities of the Cylon occupation and the escape from New Caprica)
Note: While this number of military personnel fits with the estimate about their strength during the settlement of New Caprica, it still does not fit with the depiction of overcrowding on Galactica after the escape from the planet and the destruction of Pegasus, since the battlestar was crewed with approximately 2,600 people to begin with. The number of civilians should therefore be lower.

Season 4

  • Six of One
    • 39,676 - 22 unaccounted for deaths from the previous episode. These may be people who were wounded in the battle, but died of their injuries later.
  • The Hub
    • 39,673 - A decrease of one, possibly counting Pike's death. However, the episode takes place concurrently with "Sine Qua Non" and Pike only dies later in the episode.
  • Daybreak, Part I
    • 39,516 - 5 unknown casualties, possibly people who were wounded in the previous episode but did not die until later.
  • Daybreak, Part III
    • 39,406 - Tally shown digitally available version of "Daybreak, Part III". A loss of 110, most likely casualties from the Battle of the Colony.
    • approx. "38,000" - Closing count given by Admiral Adama, a verbal estimate of the number of survivors who survived to make it to the second Earth. Laura Roslin dies on Earth. Kara "Starbuck" Thrace mysteriously vanishes. Samuel Anders pilots the Fleet into Earth's sun.
  • 150,000 Years Later
    • 6,760,000,000 - Estimated current population of Earth, descendants of the survivors of the Twelve Colonies of Kobol.

Per Episode

No. Episode Population ΔPopulation
1.01 33 50,298 No population change. 0
1.02 Water 47,958 Population decline. 2340
1.03 Bastille Day 47,958 No population change. 0
1.04 Act of Contrition 47,958 No population change. 0
1.05 You Can't Go Home Again 47,954 Population decline. 4
1.06 Litmus Not Available
1.07 Six Degrees of Separation Not Available
1.08 Flesh and Bone 47,954 No population change. 0
1.09 Tigh Me Up, Tigh Me Down 47,905 Population decline. 49
1.10 The Hand of God 47,898 Population decline. 7
1.11 Colonial Day 47,898 No population change. 0
1.12 Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part I 47,897 Population decline. 1
1.13 Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part II 47,887 Population decline. 10
2.01 Scattered 47,875 Population decline. 12
2.02 Valley of Darkness 47,874 Population decline. 1
2.03 Fragged 47,862 Population decline. 12
2.04 Resistance 47,861 Population decline. 1
2.05 The Farm 47,857 Population decline. 4
2.06 Home, Part I 47,858 Population increase. 1
2.07 Home, Part II 47,855 Population decline. 3
2.08 Final Cut 47,853 Population decline. 2
2.09 Flight of the Phoenix 47,853 No population change. 0
2.10 Pegasus 49,605 Population increase. 1752
2.11 Resurrection Ship, Part I 49,604 Population decline. 1
2.12 Resurrection Ship, Part II 49,604 No population change. 0
2.13 Epiphanies 49,598 Population decline. 6
2.14 Black Market 49,597 Population decline. 1
2.15 Scar 49,593 Population decline. 4
2.16 Sacrifice 49,590 Population decline. 3
2.17 The Captain's Hand 49,584 Population decline. 6
2.18 Downloaded 49,579 Population decline. 5
2.19 Lay Down Your Burdens, Part I 49,579 No population change. 0
2.20 Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II 49,550 Population decline. 29
3.01 Occupation Not Available
3.02 Precipice Not Available
3.03 Exodus, Part I Not Available
3.04 Exodus, Part II Not Available
3.05 Collaborators 41,435 Population decline. 8115
3.06 Torn 41,422 Population decline. 13
3.07 A Measure of Salvation 41,420 Population decline. 2
3.08 Hero 41,421 Population increase. 1
3.09 Unfinished Business 41,422 Population increase. 1
3.10 The Passage 41,420 Population decline. 2
3.11 The Eye of Jupiter 41,402 Population decline. 18
3.12 Rapture 41,401 Population decline. 1
3.13 Taking a Break From All Your Worries 41,403 Population increase. 2
3.14 The Woman King 41,401 Population decline. 2
3.15 A Day in the Life 41,398 Population decline. 3
3.16 Dirty Hands 41,400 Population increase. 2
3.17 Maelstrom 41,400 No population change. 0
3.18 The Son Also Rises 41,399 Population decline. 1
3.19 Crossroads, Part I 41,399 No population change. 0
3.20 Crossroads, Part II Not Available
4.01 He That Believeth in Me 39,698 Population decline. 1701
4.02 Six of One 39,676 Population decline. 22
4.03 The Ties That Bind 39,676 No population change. 0
4.04 Escape Velocity 39,675 Population decline. 1
4.05 The Road Less Traveled 39,676 Population increase. 1
4.06 Faith 39,675 Population decline. 1
4.07 Guess What's Coming to Dinner? 39,673 Population decline. 2
4.08 Sine Qua Non 39,674 Population increase. 1
4.09 The Hub 39,673 Population decline. 1
4.10 Revelations 39,665 Population decline. 8
4.11 Sometimes a Great Notion 39,651 Population decline. 14
4.12 A Disquiet Follows My Soul 39,650 Population decline. 1
4.13 The Oath 39,644 Population decline. 6
4.14 Blood on the Scales 39,643 Population decline. 1
4.15 No Exit 39,603 Population decline. 40
4.16 Deadlock 39,556 Population decline. 47
4.17 Someone to Watch Over Me 39,556 No population change. 0
4.18 Islanded in a Stream of Stars 39,521 Population decline. 35
4.19 Daybreak, Part I 39,516 Population decline. 5
4.20 Daybreak, Part II Not Available
4.21 Daybreak, Part III 39,406 Population decline. 110

Analysis

  • A deleted scene from "The Passage" with President Roslin broadcasting a message following the loss of the Carina indicated that they had lost four ships in the star cluster, with 46 men and 12 women aboard those ships.
  • Since the end of "33", the Fleet's population has been dying off at a fairly steady rate of approximately 2.1 persons per day. At this rate, barring the arrival of more humans such as that seen in "Pegasus", the Fleet would be completely depopulated within a few decades.
  • In "The Captain's Hand" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of Pegasus), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years. If this refers only to excess mortality, it would mean an average rate of roughly 7.5 people a day. It may be that Baltar's estimate considered more factors, such as labor shortages resulting in famine, which would complicate this model, resulting in the death rate exponentially increasing over time.
  • First season survivor counts are available from President Roslin's whiteboard aboard Colonial One. Second season survivor counts are included in the opening titles, as well as the presidential whiteboard.
  • The loss of 8,115 people between "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II" and "Collaborators" is the highest net loss from one opening title count to another.
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