Survivor count: Difference between revisions

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(→‎Data: count overall rose by +2, not +1 as originally suggested by "Taking a Break..." point breakdown)
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'''Day Unknown'''
'''Day Unknown'''
*'''[[The Passage]]]'''
*'''[[The Passage]]'''
**41,420 - Two unseen deaths.
**41,420 - Two unseen deaths.


Line 164: Line 164:
'''Day Unknown'''
'''Day Unknown'''
*'''[[Taking a Break from All Your Worries]]'''
*'''[[Taking a Break from All Your Worries]]'''
**41,403 - Deaths of [[Hillard]] and [[Omar Fischer]]. [[Hera Agathon]], [[Gaius Baltar]] and [[Caprica-Six]] join the fleet's population.
**41,403 - Deaths of [[Hillard]] and [[Omar Fischer]]. [[Hera Agathon]], [[Gaius Baltar]] and [[Caprica-Six]] join the fleet's population, in addition to one possible birth.


==Analysis==
==Analysis==

Revision as of 07:15, 30 January 2007

The number of surviving Colonial citizens and military in the fleet was provided at intervals throughout the first season on a whiteboard on Colonial One, and in one instance spoken aloud in dialogue. In the second season, this number appears in the opening credits of every episode (sometimes jokingly referred to as the "Countdown to Extinction"), and displays limited omniscience, updating itself to reflect the deaths on Kobol early in that season. This page collects the figures available thus far, cross-referenced with date information from Re-Imagined Series Timeline.

Graph[edit]

All dates past Day 51 are estimates.

Data[edit]

Day 6

  • 33
    • 50,298 - initial estimate.
    • 49,998 - after revising count downward by 300.
    • 49,317 - after second revision downward (cut scene, DVD)
    • 47,972 - after destruction of the Olympic Carrier.
    • 47,973 - one birth on the Rising Star.

Day 10

Day 15

Day 25

Day 28

Day 48

Day 50

Day 51

Day 54 (est.)

Day 60 (est.)

Dates Unknown

Day 86 (est.)

Date Unknown

Day 189

  • Epiphanies
    • 49,598 - Deaths of Admiral Helena Cain and an unnamed marine guard on Pegasus. The remaining casualty count of four is conspicuously low given the scope of the battle depicted in the previous episode.

Date Unknown

  • Black Market
    • 49,597 - The death of a suicide bomber on the Daru Mozu. Based on dialogue, the attack took the lives of the bomber and at least two civillians. This may have been offset by births in between the two episodes. The death of Commander Jack Fisk was shown in the teaser of Black Market, and should be counted in the opening credits.
  • Scar
    • 49,593 - Deaths of Commander Jack Fisk, Fisk's assasin, Phelan, and one other person, presumably Beano. It is unclear where the death of Beano, the first of four pilots killed by Scar is counted. Since much of the episode, including the deaths of the four pilots killed by Scar, is shown in flashback.

c. Day 210

  • The Captain's Hand
    • 49,584 - Deaths of Sesha Abinell, Vinson, Page, Chu, and two unnamed marines, and Billy Keikeya. Sesha Abinell's husband Ray was killed during a Cylon attack ten weeks prior to this episode, but it does not appear to have been counted. It may have been offset by a birth.

c. Day 240

c. Day 270

  • Downloaded
    • 49,579 - confirms closing count from 'Captain's Hand'.
  • Lay Down Your Burdens, Part I
    • 49,579 - No change since "Downloaded". It is unclear how the birth of Hera is counted. Her birth appears to be offset by the death of Maya's child. Maya's child seems to be the one seen in the incubator, and whose ashes are spread out of a Raptor by Helo and Tyrol.

c. Day 280

During the Settlement of New Caprica (from c. Day 280 to c. Day 660)

  • Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II
    • After the "One Year Later" time jump later in the episode, the population of New Caprica City is given as 39,192. This includes separated military personnel, but does not include military and civilians in the small fleet orbiting the planet.
  • Precipice
    • According to Lee Adama, about 2,000 civilians escaped with the ships in orbit of New Caprica.
    • Adama also tells us that both Galactica and Pegasus are at half strength.
      • A careful crew tally establishes that, at full strength, Galactica is crewed by about 2,808 people and Pegasus by about 2,445. This puts the maximum number of military personnel at about 2,627.
      • The same tally indicates that immediately prior to the one-year jump, Galactica was crewed by about 2,660 people, and Pegasus by 1,743. This puts the minimum number of military personnel at about 2,202.
    • This puts our estimate of the total human population between 43,394 (39,192 + 2,000 + 2,202) and 43,819 (39,192 + 2,000 + 2,627).
    • Subtracting from the figure of 49,550 given in "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II", this means that the total population fell by between 5,731 and 6,156 people during the one-year gap. The majority of these deaths probably happened as a result of the destruction of Cloud Nine and the surrounding vessels.

During the Occupation of New Caprica (from c. Day 660 to c. Day 798)

  • An unknown number of people died in the insurgency and Cylon retaliation. However this must be offset by additional births during this four month time span. Accurately tracking the population numbers is impossible at this point, but known casualty figures are given below:
  • c. Day 729
  • c. Day 794
  • c. Day 796
    • Precipice - suicide bombing at the power substation kills 4 humans.
  • c. Day 798

c. Day 800

  • Collaborators
    • 41,435 - Fleet population as of the third day of the Second Exodus. Given the above numbers, the death toll of the resistance and the Battle of New Caprica is about 2000 people. Given the total given in the next episode, this figure doesn't seem to reflect the 13 collaborators executed by The Circle between this episode and the last.
    • Several hundred children might have been born on New Caprica. Since they are also included in the count, the Fleet has lost more older and able-bodied people than apparent.

c. Day 830

  • Torn
    • 41,422 - Figure now reflects the 13 collaborators executed by The Circle. No deaths occur in this episode.

c. Day 831

c. Day 935

c. Day 950

Day Unknown

Day Unknown

Day Unknown + 1

Day Unknown

Analysis[edit]

  • The detonation of a nuclear warhead on Cloud Nine by the Model Six Cylon known as Gina in "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II" is the first time a ship has been destroyed since the Olympic Carrier was destroyed in "33".
  • The ships Adriatic and Carina are also destroyed in "The Passage".
  • Since the end of "33", the fleet's population has been dying off at a fairly steady rate of approximately 2.1 persons per day. At this rate, the fleet will be completely depopulated in 62 years. If the show's failure to supply concrete dates continues during the remainder of the second season, perhaps the "half-life" of the fleet's population can be used to "carbon date" future episodes.
  • First season survivor counts are available from the whiteboard aboard Colonial One. Second season survivor counts are included in the opening titles, as well as the whiteboard.
  • In "The Captain's Hand" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of Pegasus), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years. If this refers only to excess mortality, it would mean an average rate of roughly 7.5 people a day. It may be that Baltar's estimate considered more factors, such as labor shortages resulting in famine, which would complicate this model, resulting in the death rate exponentially increasing over time.
  • The loss of 8,115 people between "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II" and "Collaborators" is the highest net loss from one opening title count to another.

crew member handling electronic countermeasures of a craft; ECOs are standard crew aboard Raptors (see: ECO)

Re-imagined Series definition: the process of using the FTL engines to make an near-instantaneous apparent faster-than-light transport of a ship from one point in space to another

Re-imagined Series definition: abbreviation of tally-ho; the sighting of an enemy target, such as a craft, landmark, or position (TRS: "The Hand of God", "Scattered", "Maelstrom")

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