Survivor count

The number of surviving Colonial citizens and military in the fleet was provided at intervals throughout the first season on a whiteboard on Colonial One, and in one instance spoken aloud in dialogue. In the second season, this number appears in the opening credits of every episode (sometimes jokingly referred to as the "Countdown to Extinction"), and displays limited omniscience, updating itself to reflect the deaths on Kobol early in that season. This page collects the figures available thus far, cross-referenced with date information from Re-Imagined Series Timeline.

Graph

All dates past Day 51 are estimates.

Data

Day 6

• 33
  • 50,298 - initial estimate.
  • 49,998 - after revising count downward by 300.
  • 49,317 - after second revision downward (cut scene, DVD)
  • 47,972 - after destruction of the Olympic Carrier.
  • 47,973 - one birth on the Rising Star.

Day 10

• Water
  • 47,958

Day 15

• You Can't Go Home Again
  • 47,958 - has not been updated to reflect the deaths of 13 pilots in "Act of Contrition"

Day 25

• Flesh and Bone
  • 47,954 - after deaths of a marine and three crew in "Litmus", discovery of Ellen Tigh one week prior to "Tigh Me Up, Tigh Me Down", and the disappearance of Shelly Godfrey in "Six Degrees of Separation". Aaron Doral (Scorpia Traveler copy) was apparently not included among the fleet's population. The events of "Act of Contrition" have (still) not been accounted for.

Day 28

• Tigh Me Up, Tigh Me Down
  • 47,905 - given by Dr. Gaius Baltar, possibly excluding himself and Sharon Valerii. Unusually large reduction for a 3-day period.

Day 48

• Colonial Day
  • 47,898 - immediately after Valance's death. Includes four viper pilots killed in "The Hand of God".

Day 50

• Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part I
  • 47,897

Day 51

• Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part II
  • 47,887 - ten-person crew of Raptor 3.
• Scattered
  • 47,875 - Galactica Boomer was probably removed after her assassination attempt. Probably includes the death of Karma in KLG pt. I, since the on-screen total appears to include deaths on Kobol.
• Valley of Darkness
  • 47,874 - Tarn
• Fragged
  • 47,862 - Flyboy, Socinus, others in Cylon boarding action.

Day 54 (est.)

• Resistance
  • 47,861 - Crashdown

Day 60 (est.)

• The Farm
  • 47,857 - Four civillians onboard the Gideon.

Dates Unknown

• Home, Part I
  • 47,858 - Return of Helo, who was presumed dead. Caprica Valerii is not included in the count.
• Home, Part II
  • 47,855 - Death of Elosha and a Laura Roslin faction Redshirt.
• Final Cut
  • 47,853 - Death of Meier and unnamed Tom Zarek henchman in "Home, Part II".

Day 86 (est.)

• Flight of the Phoenix
  • 47,853 - No change since "Final Cut".

Date Unknown

• Pegasus
  • 49,605 - After the return of the battlestar Pegasus, a dramatic increase of 1,752 over the previous count. The change is shown in the opening credits of Pegasus, since the ship appeared in the "teaser" before the opening credits.
• Resurrection Ship, Part I
  • 49,604 - Death of Alistair Thorne.
• Resurrection Ship, Part II
  • 49,604 - No change since "Resurrection Ship, Part I".

Day 189

• Epiphanies
  • 49,598 - Deaths of Admiral Helena Cain and an unnamed marine guard on Pegasus. The remaining casualty count of four is conspicuously low given the scope of the battle depicted in the previous episode.

Date Unknown

• Black Market
  • 49,597 - The death of a suicide bomber on the Daru Mozu. Based on dialogue, the attack took the lives of the bomber and at least two civillians. This may have been offset by births in between the two episodes. The death of Commander Jack Fisk was shown in the teaser of Black Market, and should be counted in the opening credits.
• Scar
  • 49,593 - Deaths of Commander Jack Fisk, Fisk's assasin, Phelan, and one other person, presumably Beano. It is unclear where the death of Beano, the first of four pilots killed by Scar is counted. Since much of the episode, including the deaths of the four pilots killed by Scar, is shown in flashback.
• Sacrifice
  • 49,590 - Deaths of three pilots killed by Scar: Reilly, Brent "BB" Baxton, and Joseph "Jo-Jo" Clark.
• The Captain's Hand
  • 49,584 - Deaths of Sesha Abinell, Vinson, Page, Chu, and two unnamed marines, and Billy Keikeya. Sesha Abinell's husband Ray was killed during a Cylon attack ten weeks prior to this episode, but it does not appear to have been counted. It may have been offset by a birth.
  • 49,579 - Deaths of "Buster", "Shark", the two-man crew of Raptor 314, and Commander Barry Garner (seen near the end on the white board).

Nine Months after the Mini-Series

• Downloaded
  • 49,579 - confirms closing count from 'Captain's Hand'.
• Lay Down Your Burdens, Part I
  • 49,579 - No change since Downloaded. It is unclear how the birth of Hera is counted. Her birth appears to be offset by the death of Maya's child. Maya's child seems to be the one seen in the incubator, and whose ashes are spread out of a Raptor by Helo and Tyrol.
• Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II
  • 49,550 - Raptor 612 jumped into a mountain on Caprica. This could account for four people: A pilot, an ECO, and two marines.

During the Settlement of New Caprica

• Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II
  • After the "One Year Later" time jump later in the episode, the population of New Caprica City is given as 39,192. This includes separated military personnel, but does not include military and civilians in the small fleet orbiting the planet.
• Precipice
  • According to Lee Adama, about 2,000 civilians escaped with the ships in orbit of New Caprica.
  • Adama also tells us that both Galactica and Pegasus are at half strength.
    • A careful crew tally establishes that, at full strength, Galactica is crewed by about 2,808 people and Pegasus by about 2,445. This puts the maximum number of military personnel at about 2,627.
    • The same tally indicates that immediately prior to the one-year jump, Galactica was crewed by about 2,660 people, and Pegasus by 1,743. This puts the minimum number of military personnel at about 2,202.
  • This puts our estimate of the total fleet population between 43,394 (39,192 + 2,000 + 2,202) and 43,819 (39,192 + 2,000 + 2,627).
  • Subtracting from the figure of 49,550 given in "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II", this means that the total population fell from by between 5,731 and 6,156 people during the one-year gap. The majority of these deaths probably happened as a result of the destruction of Cloud Nine and the surrounding vessels.

During the Occupation of New Caprica and beyond

• Precipice
  • According to Lee Adama, about 2000 civilians escaped on the civilian ships in orbit of New Caprica. This does not include an unknown number of military personell on Galactica and Pegasus.
• Exodus, Part II
  • Lee Adama states that Pegasus has a half-strength crew, which means about 900 people. Assuming the same for Galactica, about 1300 people serve on the latter ship at this time, putting the total number of active military personell at 2200.
  • This puts the death toll of the destruction of Cloud Nine and three nearby ships at about 6200 (rounded: 49550-39190-2000-2200)
  • An unknown number of people died in the insurgency and Cylon retaliation. However this can also be offset by additional births in in the four months since the Cylon occupation. Accurately tracking the population numbers is impossible at this point.
• Collaborators
  • 41,435 - Fleet population as of the third day of the Second Exodus. Given the above numbers, the death toll of the resistance and the Battle of New Caprica is about 2000 people.

Analysis

• The detonation of a nuclear warhead on Cloud Nine by the Model Six Cylon known as Gina in Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II is the first time a ship has been destroyed since the Olympic Carrier was destroyed in 33.
• Since the end of "33", the fleet's population has been dying off at a fairly steady rate of approximately 2.1 persons per day. At this rate, the fleet will be completely depopulated in 62 years. If the show's failure to supply concrete dates continues during the remainder of the second season, perhaps the "half-life" of the fleet's population can be used to "carbon date" future episodes.
• First season survivor counts are available from the whiteboard aboard Colonial One. Second season survivor counts are included in the opening titles, as well as the whiteboard.
• In "The Captain's Hand" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of Pegasus), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years. If this refers only to excess mortality, it would mean an average rate of roughly 7.5 people a day. It may be that Baltar's estimate considered more factors, such as labor shortages resulting in famine, which would complicate this model, resulting in the death rate exponentially increasing over time.