Editing Survivor count
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:''This article involves the survivor count of the refugees in the [[Re-imagined Series]].'' | |||
In the second season, this number appears in the opening credits of every episode (sometimes jokingly referred to as the "Countdown to Extinction"), and displays limited omniscience, updating itself to reflect the deaths on | The number of surviving Colonial citizens and military in the fleet was provided at intervals throughout the first season on a whiteboard on ''[[Colonial One]]'', and in one instance spoken aloud in dialogue. In the second season, this number appears in the opening credits of every episode (sometimes jokingly referred to as the "Countdown to Extinction"), and displays limited omniscience, updating itself to reflect the deaths on [[Kobol]] early in that season. This page collects the figures available thus far, cross-referenced with date information from [[Re-Imagined Series Timeline]]. | ||
==Graph== | ==Graph== | ||
[[Image:Survivors.png]] | |||
:''All dates past Day 51 are estimates.'' | |||
:''All dates | |||
==Data== | ==Data== | ||
'''Day 6''' | '''Day 6''' | ||
*'''[[33]]''' | *'''[[33]]''' | ||
**50,298 - | **50,298 - initial estimate. | ||
**49,998 - | **49,998 - after revising count downward by 300. | ||
**49,317 - | **49,317 - after second revision downward (cut scene, DVD) | ||
**47,972 - | **47,972 - after destruction of the ''[[Olympic Carrier]]''. | ||
**47,973 - | **47,973 - one birth on the ''[[Rising Star (RDM)|Rising Star]]''. | ||
'''Day 10''' | '''Day 10''' | ||
*'''[[Water]]''' | *'''[[Water]]''' | ||
**47,958 | **47,958 | ||
'''Day 15''' | '''Day 15''' | ||
*'''[[You Can't Go Home Again]]''' | *'''[[You Can't Go Home Again]]''' | ||
**47,958 - 13 pilots | **47,958 - has not been updated to reflect the deaths of 13 pilots in "[[Act of Contrition]]" | ||
'''Day 25''' | '''Day 25''' | ||
*'''[[Flesh and Bone]]''' | *'''[[Flesh and Bone]]''' | ||
**47,954 - | **47,954 - after deaths of a marine and three crew in "[[Litmus]]", discovery of [[Ellen Tigh]] one week prior to "[[Tigh Me Up, Tigh Me Down]]", and the disappearance of [[Shelly Godfrey]] in "[[Six Degrees of Separation]]". [[Aaron Doral#Scorpia Traveler copy|Aaron Doral (Scorpia Traveler copy)]] was apparently not included among the fleet's population. The events of "Act of Contrition" have (still) not been accounted for. | ||
'''Day 28''' | '''Day 28''' | ||
*'''[[Tigh Me Up, Tigh Me Down]]''' | *'''[[Tigh Me Up, Tigh Me Down]]''' | ||
**47,905 - | **47,905 - given by Dr. [[Gaius Baltar]], possibly excluding himself and [[Sharon Valerii (Galactica copy)|Sharon Valerii]]. Unusually large reduction for a 3-day period. | ||
'''Day 48''' | '''Day 48''' | ||
*'''[[Colonial Day]]''' | *'''[[Colonial Day]]''' | ||
**47,898 - | **47,898 - immediately after [[Valance]]'s death. Includes four viper pilots killed in "[[The Hand of God (RDM)|The Hand of God]]". | ||
'''Day 50''' | '''Day 50''' | ||
*'''[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part I]]''' | *'''[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part I]]''' | ||
**47,897 | **47,897 | ||
'''Day 51''' | '''Day 51''' | ||
*'''[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part II]]''' | *'''[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part II]]''' | ||
**47,887 - [[Raptor 3]] | **47,887 - ten-person crew of [[Raptor 3]]. | ||
*'''[[Scattered]]''' | *'''[[Scattered]]''' | ||
**47,875 - [[Sharon Valerii|"Boomer" Valerii]] | **47,875 - [[Sharon Valerii|"Boomer" Valerii]] was probably removed after her assassination attempt. Probably includes the death of [[Karma]] in "[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part I]]", since the on-screen total appears to include deaths on Kobol. | ||
*'''[[Valley of Darkness]]''' | *'''[[Valley of Darkness]]''' | ||
**47,874 - [[Tarn]] | **47,874 - [[Tarn]] | ||
*'''[[Fragged]]''' | *'''[[Fragged]]''' | ||
**47,862 - [[Flyboy]] | **47,862 - [[Flyboy]], [[Socinus]], others in Cylon boarding action. | ||
'''Day 54 (est.)''' | '''Day 54 (est.)''' | ||
*'''[[Resistance (episode)|Resistance]]''' | *'''[[Resistance (episode)|Resistance]]''' | ||
**47,861 - | **47,861 - [[Crashdown]] | ||
'''Day 60 (est.)''' | '''Day 60 (est.)''' | ||
*'''[[The Farm]]''' | *'''[[The Farm]]''' | ||
** 47,857 - Four civilians | ** 47,857 - Four civilians aboard the ''[[Gideon]]''. | ||
'''Dates Unknown''' | '''Dates Unknown''' | ||
*'''[[Home, Part I]]''' | *'''[[Home, Part I]]''' | ||
** 47,858 - Return of | ** 47,858 - Return of [[Karl Agathon|Helo]], who was presumed dead. Caprica Valerii is not included in the count. | ||
*'''[[Home, Part II]]''' | *'''[[Home, Part II]]''' | ||
** 47,855 - Death of [[Elosha]] and a [[Laura Roslin faction|faction]] [[Wikipedia: Redshirt (character)|redshirt]]. | ** 47,855 - Death of [[Elosha]] and a [[Laura Roslin faction|faction]] [[Wikipedia: Redshirt (character)|redshirt]]. | ||
| Line 99: | Line 88: | ||
**49,597 - The death of a suicide bomber on the ''[[Daru Mozu]]''. Based on dialogue, the attack took the lives of the bomber and at least two civilians. This may have been offset by births in between the two episodes. The death of [[Jack Fisk]] was shown in the teaser of [[Black Market]], and should be counted in the opening credits. | **49,597 - The death of a suicide bomber on the ''[[Daru Mozu]]''. Based on dialogue, the attack took the lives of the bomber and at least two civilians. This may have been offset by births in between the two episodes. The death of [[Jack Fisk]] was shown in the teaser of [[Black Market]], and should be counted in the opening credits. | ||
*'''[[Scar]]''' | *'''[[Scar]]''' | ||
**49,593 - Deaths of Commander [[Jack Fisk]], Fisk's | **49,593 - Deaths of Commander [[Jack Fisk]], Fisk's assasin, [[Phelan]], and one other person, presumably [[Beano]]. It is unclear where the death of Beano, the first of four pilots killed by Scar is counted. Since much of the episode, including the deaths of the four pilots killed by Scar, is shown in flashback. | ||
*'''[[Sacrifice]]''' | *'''[[Sacrifice]]''' | ||
| Line 106: | Line 95: | ||
'''c. Day 210''' | '''c. Day 210''' | ||
*'''[[The Captain's Hand]]''' | *'''[[The Captain's Hand]]''' | ||
**49,584 - Deaths of [[Sesha Abinell]], [[ | **49,584 - Deaths of [[Sesha Abinell]], [[Vinson]], [[Page]], [[Chu]], and two unnamed marines, and [[Billy Keikeya]]. Sesha Abinell's husband Ray was killed during a Cylon attack ten weeks prior to this episode, but it does not appear to have been counted. It may have been offset by a birth. | ||
'''c. Day 240''' | '''c. Day 240''' | ||
*'''[[The Captain's Hand]]''' | *'''[[The Captain's Hand]]''' | ||
**49,579 - Deaths of [[Richard Bayer|Buster]], [[Lyla|Shark]], the two-man crew of [[Raptor 314]], and Commander [[Barry Garner]] (seen near the end on the white board). | **49,579 - Deaths of [[Richard Bayer|Buster]], [[Lyla|Shark]], the two-man crew of [[Raptor 314]], and Commander [[Barry Garner]] (seen near the end on the white board). | ||
'''c. Day 270''' | '''c. Day 270''' | ||
*'''[[Downloaded]]''' | *'''[[Downloaded]]''' | ||
**49,579 - confirms closing count from "The Captain's Hand" | **49,579 - confirms closing count from "The Captain's Hand". | ||
*'''[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part I]]''' | *'''[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part I]]''' | ||
**49,579 - No change since "[[Downloaded]]". It is unclear how the birth of [[ | **49,579 - No change since "[[Downloaded]]". It is unclear how the birth of [[Hera]] is counted. Her birth appears to be offset by the death of [[Maya]]'s child. Maya's child seems to be the one seen in the incubator, and whose ashes are spread out of a Raptor by Helo and Tyrol. | ||
'''c. Day 280''' | '''c. Day 280''' | ||
*'''[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]''' | *'''[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]''' | ||
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***The same tally indicates that immediately prior to the one-year jump, ''Galactica'' was crewed by about 2,600 people, and ''Pegasus'' by about 1,700. At half-strength, this puts the minimum number of military personnel at about 2,200. | ***The same tally indicates that immediately prior to the one-year jump, ''Galactica'' was crewed by about 2,600 people, and ''Pegasus'' by about 1,700. At half-strength, this puts the minimum number of military personnel at about 2,200. | ||
**This puts our estimate of the total human population at roughly 43,400 (39,192 + 2000 + 2200) | **This puts our estimate of the total human population at roughly 43,400 (39,192 + 2000 + 2200) | ||
**Subtracting from the figure of 49,550 given in "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II, | **Subtracting from the figure of 49,550 given in "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II", this means that the total population fell by about 6150 people during the one-year gap. The majority of these deaths probably happened as a result of the destruction of ''[[Cloud Nine]]'' and the surrounding vessels. | ||
:''For a confirmation of these estimates with more accurate numbers see the "[[Crossroads, Part I]]" section'' | :''For a confirmation of these estimates with more accurate numbers see the "[[Crossroads, Part I]]" section'' | ||
'''During the Occupation of New Caprica (from c. Day 660 to c. Day 798)''' | '''During the Occupation of New Caprica (from c. Day 660 to c. Day 798)''' | ||
*An unknown number of people died in the insurgency and Cylon retaliation. However this must be offset by additional births during this four month time span. Accurately tracking the population numbers is impossible at this point, but known casualty figures are given below: | *An unknown number of people died in the insurgency and Cylon retaliation. However this must be offset by additional births during this four month time span. Accurately tracking the population numbers is impossible at this point, but known casualty figures are given below: | ||
*'''c. Day 729''' | *'''c. Day 729''' | ||
**'''[[Battlestar Galactica: The Resistance]]''' - 10 people are killed at the temple, including [[Nora | **'''[[Battlestar Galactica: The Resistance]]''' - 10 people are killed at the temple, including [[Nora]]. | ||
*'''c. Day 794''' | *'''c. Day 794''' | ||
**'''[[Occupation]]''' - [[Tucker Clellan]] bombs the [[New Caprica Police]] graduation ceremony, killing 33 humans. | **'''[[Occupation]]''' - [[Tucker Clellan]] bombs the [[New Caprica Police]] graduation ceremony, killing 33 humans. | ||
*'''c. Day 796''' | *'''c. Day 796''' | ||
**'''[[Precipice]]''' - suicide bombing at the power substation kills 4 humans | **'''[[Precipice]]''' - suicide bombing at the power substation kills 4 humans. | ||
*'''c. Day 798''' | *'''c. Day 798''' | ||
**'''[[Exodus, Part II]]''' - numerous casualties during the evacuation of New Caprica, including [[Maya]] | **'''[[Exodus, Part II]]''' - numerous casualties during the evacuation of New Caprica, including [[Maya]]. | ||
'''c. Day 800''' | '''c. Day 800''' | ||
*'''[[Collaborators]]''' | *'''[[Collaborators]]''' | ||
**41,435 - Fleet population as of the third day of the Second Exodus. Given the above numbers, the death toll of the resistance and the [[Battle of New Caprica]] is about 2000 people. Given the total in the next episode, this figure | **41,435 - Fleet population as of the third day of the Second Exodus. Given the above numbers, the death toll of the resistance and the [[Battle of New Caprica]] is about 2000 people. Given the total given in the next episode, this figure doesn't seem to reflect the 13 collaborators executed by the [[Circle]] between this episode and the last. | ||
**Several hundred children might have been born on New Caprica. Since they are also included in the count, the Fleet has lost more older and able-bodied people than apparent. | **Several hundred children might have been born on New Caprica. Since they are also included in the count, the Fleet has lost more older and able-bodied people than apparent. | ||
| Line 182: | Line 165: | ||
*'''[[Taking a Break from All Your Worries]]''' | *'''[[Taking a Break from All Your Worries]]''' | ||
**41,403 - Deaths of [[Hillard]] and [[Omar Fischer]]. [[Hera Agathon]], [[Gaius Baltar]] and [[Caprica-Six]] join the Fleet's population, in addition to | **41,403 - Deaths of [[Hillard]] and [[Omar Fischer]]. [[Hera Agathon]], [[Gaius Baltar]] and [[Caprica-Six]] join the Fleet's population, in addition to one possible birth. | ||
*'''[[The Woman King]]''' | *'''[[The Woman King]]''' | ||
| Line 188: | Line 171: | ||
*'''[[A Day in the Life]]''' | *'''[[A Day in the Life]]''' | ||
**41,398 - Deaths of [[Willie King]] and two other Sagittarons; | **41,398 - Deaths of [[Willie King]] and two other Sagittarons; possible more if offset by births. | ||
*'''[[Dirty Hands]]''' | *'''[[Dirty Hands]]''' | ||
| Line 197: | Line 180: | ||
*'''[[The Son Also Rises]]''' | *'''[[The Son Also Rises]]''' | ||
**41,399 - Death of [[Kara Thrace]] in the prior episode, and [[Alan Hughes]] at the end of this episode's teaser. Hughes | **41,399 - Death of [[Kara Thrace]] in the prior episode, and [[Alan Hughes]] at the end of this episode's teaser. Hughes is either not counted or offset by a birth. | ||
*'''[[Crossroads, Part I]]''' | *'''[[Crossroads, Part I]]''' | ||
**Unknown, as there is no intro for this episode. | **Unknown, as there is no intro for this episode. | ||
**The following numbers are given during Baltar's trial by [[Cassidy]]: 44,035 - the number who settled on New Caprica; 38,838 - the number the day after the escape. However the number of escapees can only refer to the ''civilian'' population of the Fleet, and despite talking specifically about the people who settled on New Caprica, this number includes the ''total'' population, including those in orbit. | **The following numbers are given during Baltar's trial by [[Cassidy]]: 44,035 - the number who settled on New Caprica; 38,838 - the number the day after the escape. However the number of escapees can only refer to the ''civilian'' population of the Fleet, and despite talking specifically about the people who settled on New Caprica, this number includes the ''total'' population, including those in orbit. | ||
** | **These numbers make it possible to confirm rough calculations made with numbers given in "[[Precipice]]": | ||
***41,435 (Collaborators) - 38,838 = 2,597 (the military personnel in the Fleet) | ***41,435 (Collaborators) - 38,838 = 2,597 (the military personnel in the Fleet) | ||
***44,035 - 39,192 (the inhabitants of [[New Caprica City]]) = 4,835 (the total population left in orbit) | ***44,035 - 39,192 (the inhabitants of [[New Caprica City]]) = 4,835 (the total population left in orbit) | ||
***4,835 - 2,597 = 2,238 (in "Precipice" Lee Adama refers to roughly 2,000 civilians who escaped New Caprica) | ***4,835 - 2,597 = 2,238 (in "Precipice" Lee Adama refers to roughly 2,000 civilians who escaped New Caprica) | ||
***49,550 (count in "[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]") - 39,192 - 4,835 = 5,523 (the death toll prior to the occupation, mostly incurred with the destruction of ''[[Cloud | ***49,550 (count in "[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]") - 39,192 - 4,835 = 5,523 (the death toll prior to the occupation, mostly incurred with the destruction of ''[[Cloud Nine]]'') | ||
***49,550 - 5,523 - 41,435 = 2,592 (the causalities of the Cylon occupation and the [[Battle of New Caprica|escape from New Caprica]]) | ***49,550 - 5,523 - 41,435 = 2,592 (the causalities of the Cylon occupation and the [[Battle of New Caprica|escape from New Caprica]]) | ||
==Analysis== | ==Analysis== | ||
*The detonation of a nuclear warhead on ''[[Cloud | *The detonation of a nuclear warhead on ''[[Cloud Nine]]'' by the [[Number Six]] copy, [[Gina]], is the first time a ship has been destroyed since the destruction of the ''[[Olympic Carrier]]''. | ||
*The ships ''[[Adriatic]]'' and ''[[Carina]]'' are also destroyed in "[[The Passage]], | *The ships ''[[Adriatic]]'' and ''[[Carina]]'' are also destroyed in "[[The Passage]]", however with only skeleton crews aboard. | ||
*Since the end of "[[33]]", the Fleet's population has been dying off at a fairly steady rate of approximately 2.1 persons per day. At this rate, the Fleet will be completely depopulated in 62 years. If the show's failure to supply concrete dates continues during the remainder of the second season, perhaps the "[[Wikipedia:Half-life|half-life]]" of the Fleet's population can be used to "[[Wikipedia: Radiocarbon dating|carbon date]]" future episodes. | |||
*Since the end of "[[33]], | *First season survivor counts are available from [[Laura Roslin|President Roslin's]] whiteboard aboard ''[[Colonial One]]''. Second season survivor counts are included in the opening titles, as well as the presidential whiteboard. | ||
*In "[[The Captain's Hand]]" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of ''Pegasus''), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years. If this refers only to excess mortality, it would mean an average rate of roughly 7.5 people a day. It may be that Baltar's estimate considered more factors, such as labor shortages resulting in famine, which would complicate this model, resulting in the death rate exponentially increasing over time. | *In "[[The Captain's Hand]]" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of ''Pegasus''), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years. If this refers only to excess mortality, it would mean an average rate of roughly 7.5 people a day. It may be that Baltar's estimate considered more factors, such as labor shortages resulting in famine, which would complicate this model, resulting in the death rate exponentially increasing over time. | ||
*The loss of 8,115 people between "[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]" and "[[Collaborators]]" is the highest net loss from one opening title count to another. | *The loss of 8,115 people between "[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]" and "[[Collaborators]]" is the highest net loss from one opening title count to another. | ||
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[[Category:Colonial History (RDM)]] | [[Category:Colonial History (RDM)]] | ||
[[Category:RDM]] | [[Category:RDM]] | ||