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:''This article involves the survivor count of the refugees in the [[Re-imagined Series]]. For a count of losses and gains in the Fleet incurred during the [[Original Series]], see: [[Fleet population]].'' | |||
In the second season, this number appears in the opening credits of every episode (sometimes jokingly referred to as the "Countdown to Extinction"), and displays limited omniscience, updating itself to reflect the deaths on | The number of surviving Colonial citizens and military in the fleet was provided at intervals throughout the first season on a whiteboard on ''[[Colonial One]]'', and in one instance spoken aloud in dialogue. In the second season, this number appears in the opening credits of every episode (sometimes jokingly referred to as the "Countdown to Extinction"), and displays limited omniscience, updating itself to reflect the deaths on [[Kobol (RDM)|Kobol]] early in that season. This page collects the figures available thus far, cross-referenced with date information from [[Timeline (RDM)]]. | ||
==Graph== | ==Graph== | ||
[[ | [[Image:Fleet_survivors_new.jpg]] | ||
:''All dates up until 51 are exact, 51-950 use estimates below, all tallies past 950 use an average of 5 days between counts (it averages out)'' | :''All dates up until 51 are exact, 51-950 use estimates below, all tallies past 950 use an average of 5 days between counts (it averages out)'' | ||
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'''Zero Hour''' | '''Zero Hour''' | ||
*'''[[Miniseries]]''' | *'''[[Miniseries]]''' | ||
**50,000,000,000 - Estimated total population of the Twelve Colonies of Kobol prior to the Cylon attack | **50,000,000,000 - Estimated total population of the Twelve Colonies of Kobol prior to the Cylon attack ([[A Disquiet Follows My Soul]]). | ||
'''Day 6''' | '''Day 6''' | ||
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'''Day 15''' | '''Day 15''' | ||
*'''[[You Can't Go Home Again]]''' | *'''[[You Can't Go Home Again]]''' | ||
**47,958 - 13 pilots killed in a | **47,958 - 13 pilots killed in a hanger deck accident in "[[Act of Contrition]]", but the count is not updated. | ||
'''Day 25''' | '''Day 25''' | ||
*'''[[Flesh and Bone]]''' | *'''[[Flesh and Bone]]''' | ||
**47,954 - A net loss of 4 after deaths of a marine and three crew in "[[Litmus]], | **47,954 - A net loss of 4 after deaths of a marine and three crew in "[[Litmus]]", the discovery of [[Ellen Tigh]] one week prior to "[[Tigh Me Up, Tigh Me Down]]", and the disappearance of [[Shelly Godfrey]] in "[[Six Degrees of Separation]]". [[Number Five#Suicide Bomber Copy|Aaron Doral (Scorpia Traveler copy)]] was apparently not included among the fleet's population. The events of "Act of Contrition" have (still) not been accounted for. | ||
'''Day 28''' | '''Day 28''' | ||
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'''Day 51''' | '''Day 51''' | ||
*'''[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part II]]''' | *'''[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part II]]''' | ||
**47,887 - [[Raptor 3]] destroyed over | **47,887 - [[Raptor 3]] destroyed over [[Kobol (RDM)|Kobol]] with 10 souls aboard. | ||
*'''[[Scattered]]''' | *'''[[Scattered]]''' | ||
**47,875 - [[Sharon Valerii|"Boomer" Valerii]] is removed from the count after her assassination attempt. Probably includes the death of [[Karma]] in "[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part I]], | **47,875 - [[Sharon Valerii|"Boomer" Valerii]] is removed from the count after her assassination attempt. Probably includes the death of [[Karma]] in "[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part I]]", since the on-screen total appears to include deaths on Kobol. 10 additional unseen deaths. | ||
=== Season 2=== | === Season 2=== | ||
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'''Day 54 (est.)''' | '''Day 54 (est.)''' | ||
*'''[[Resistance (episode)|Resistance]]''' | *'''[[Resistance (episode)|Resistance]]''' | ||
**47,861 - | **47,861 - [[Crashdown]] shot by [[Gaius Baltar]]. | ||
'''Day 60 (est.)''' | '''Day 60 (est.)''' | ||
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'''Dates Unknown''' | '''Dates Unknown''' | ||
*'''[[Home, Part I]]''' | *'''[[Home, Part I]]''' | ||
** 47,858 - Return of | ** 47,858 - Return of [[Karl Agathon|Helo]], who was presumed dead. Caprica Valerii is not included in the count. | ||
*'''[[Home, Part II]]''' | *'''[[Home, Part II]]''' | ||
** 47,855 - Death of [[Elosha]] and a [[Laura Roslin faction|faction]] [[Wikipedia: Redshirt (character)|redshirt]]. | ** 47,855 - Death of [[Elosha]] and a [[Laura Roslin faction|faction]] [[Wikipedia: Redshirt (character)|redshirt]]. | ||
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***The same tally indicates that immediately prior to the one-year jump, ''Galactica'' was crewed by about 2,600 people, and ''Pegasus'' by about 1,700. At half-strength, this puts the minimum number of military personnel at about 2,200. | ***The same tally indicates that immediately prior to the one-year jump, ''Galactica'' was crewed by about 2,600 people, and ''Pegasus'' by about 1,700. At half-strength, this puts the minimum number of military personnel at about 2,200. | ||
**This puts our estimate of the total human population at roughly 43,400 (39,192 + 2000 + 2200) | **This puts our estimate of the total human population at roughly 43,400 (39,192 + 2000 + 2200) | ||
**Subtracting from the figure of 49,550 given in "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II, | **Subtracting from the figure of 49,550 given in "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II", this means that the total population fell by about 6150 people during the one-year gap. The majority of these deaths probably happened as a result of the destruction of ''[[Cloud Nine]]'' and the surrounding vessels. | ||
:''For a confirmation of these estimates with more accurate numbers see the "[[Crossroads, Part I]]" section'' | :''For a confirmation of these estimates with more accurate numbers see the "[[Crossroads, Part I]]" section'' | ||
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***44,035 - 39,192 (the inhabitants of [[New Caprica City]]) = 4,835 (the total population left in orbit) | ***44,035 - 39,192 (the inhabitants of [[New Caprica City]]) = 4,835 (the total population left in orbit) | ||
***4,835 - 2,597 = 2,238 (in "Precipice" Lee Adama refers to roughly 2,000 civilians who escaped New Caprica) | ***4,835 - 2,597 = 2,238 (in "Precipice" Lee Adama refers to roughly 2,000 civilians who escaped New Caprica) | ||
***49,550 (count in "[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]") - 39,192 - 4,835 = 5,523 (the death toll prior to the occupation, mostly incurred with the destruction of ''[[Cloud | ***49,550 (count in "[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]") - 39,192 - 4,835 = 5,523 (the death toll prior to the occupation, mostly incurred with the destruction of ''[[Cloud Nine]]'') | ||
***49,550 - 5,523 - 41,435 = 2,592 (the causalities of the Cylon occupation and the [[Battle of New Caprica|escape from New Caprica]]) | ***49,550 - 5,523 - 41,435 = 2,592 (the causalities of the Cylon occupation and the [[Battle of New Caprica|escape from New Caprica]]) | ||
:'''Note:''' While this number of military personnel fits with the estimate about their strength during the settlement of New Caprica, it still does not fit with the depiction of overcrowding on ''Galactica'' after the escape from the planet and the destruction of ''Pegasus'', since the battlestar was crewed with approximately 2,600 people to begin with. The number of civilians should therefore be lower. | :'''Note:''' While this number of military personnel fits with the estimate about their strength during the settlement of New Caprica, it still does not fit with the depiction of overcrowding on ''Galactica'' after the escape from the planet and the destruction of ''Pegasus'', since the battlestar was crewed with approximately 2,600 people to begin with. The number of civilians should therefore be lower. | ||
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=== Season 4=== | === Season 4=== | ||
*'''[[He That Believeth | *'''[[He That Believeth In Me]]''' | ||
**39,698 - A loss of [[Numerology#1701|1,701]], accounting for the ca. 600 deaths on ''[[Pyxis]]'', and ca. additional 1,100 deaths on other ships damaged during the [[Battle of the Ionian Nebula]], such as the ''[[Zephyr]]'' and ''[[Astral Queen]]''. The assumed dead [[Kara Thrace]] returns, presumably increasing the number by one. [[Samuel Anders]], [[Tory Foster]], [[Saul Tigh]], and [[Galen Tyrol]] likely removed from the count upon revelation of their Cylon nature. | **39,698 - A loss of [[Numerology#1701|1,701]], accounting for the ca. 600 deaths on ''[[Pyxis]]'', and ca. additional 1,100 deaths on other ships damaged during the [[Battle of the Ionian Nebula]], such as the ''[[Zephyr]]'' and ''[[Astral Queen]]''. The assumed dead [[Kara Thrace]] returns, presumably increasing the number by one. [[Samuel Anders]], [[Tory Foster]], [[Saul Tigh]], and [[Galen Tyrol]] likely removed from the count upon revelation of their Cylon nature. | ||
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*'''[[Sine Qua Non]]''' | *'''[[Sine Qua Non]]''' | ||
**39,674 - An unexplained increase by one. During the episode [[Eammon Pike]] is found the dead in the Raptor and several pilots were likely killed in the battle at the [[Resurrection Hub]]. [[Natalie Faust]] succumbs to her injuries from | **39,674 - An unexplained increase by one. During the episode [[Eammon Pike]] is found the dead in the Raptor and several pilots were likely killed in the battle at the [[Resurrection Hub]]. [[Natalie Faust]] succumbs to her injuries from [[Sharon Agathon]]'s assassination attempt. Her death is not counted. | ||
*'''[[The Hub]]''' | *'''[[The Hub]]''' | ||
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*'''[[Sometimes a Great Notion]]''' | *'''[[Sometimes a Great Notion]]''' | ||
**39,651 - A decrease of fourteen. Accounting for the unnamed pilot executed by [[D'Anna Biers|D'Anna]] in "[[Revelations]], | **39,651 - A decrease of fourteen. Accounting for the unnamed pilot executed by [[D'Anna Biers|D'Anna]] in "[[Revelations]]", and thirteen additional unexplained deaths. | ||
**39,650 - [[Anastasia Dualla]] commits suicide. | **39,650 - [[Anastasia Dualla]] commits suicide. | ||
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*'''150,000 Years Later''' | *'''150,000 Years Later''' | ||
** 6,760,000,000 - Estimated current population of Earth, descendants of the survivors of the Twelve Colonies of Kobol. | ** 6,760,000,000 - Estimated current population of Earth, descendants of the survivors of the Twelve Colonies of Kobol. | ||
==Analysis== | ==Analysis== | ||
*The detonation of a nuclear warhead on ''[[Cloud | *The detonation of a nuclear warhead on ''[[Cloud Nine]]'' by the [[Number Six]] copy, [[Gina Inviere]], is the first time a ship has been destroyed since the destruction of the ''[[Olympic Carrier]]''. | ||
*The ships ''[[Adriatic]]'' and ''[[Carina]]'' are also destroyed in "[[The Passage]], | *The ships ''[[Adriatic]]'' and ''[[Carina]]'' are also destroyed in "[[The Passage]]", however with only skeleton crews aboard. | ||
*Since the end of "[[33]]", the Fleet's population has been dying off at a fairly steady rate of approximately 2.1 persons per day. At this rate, barring the arrival of more humans such as that seen in "[[Pegasus]]", the Fleet would be completely depopulated within a few decades. | |||
*Since the end of "[[33]], | |||
*In "[[The Captain's Hand]]" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of ''Pegasus''), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years. If this refers only to excess mortality, it would mean an average rate of roughly 7.5 people a day. It may be that Baltar's estimate considered more factors, such as labor shortages resulting in famine, which would complicate this model, resulting in the death rate exponentially increasing over time. | *In "[[The Captain's Hand]]" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of ''Pegasus''), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years. If this refers only to excess mortality, it would mean an average rate of roughly 7.5 people a day. It may be that Baltar's estimate considered more factors, such as labor shortages resulting in famine, which would complicate this model, resulting in the death rate exponentially increasing over time. | ||
*First season survivor counts are available from [[Laura Roslin|President Roslin's]] whiteboard aboard ''[[Colonial One]]''. Second season survivor counts are included in the opening titles, as well as the presidential whiteboard. | *First season survivor counts are available from [[Laura Roslin|President Roslin's]] whiteboard aboard ''[[Colonial One]]''. Second season survivor counts are included in the opening titles, as well as the presidential whiteboard. | ||