Survivor count

2008-04-14T22:44:35Z

Talmanes: Fixed spelling error for "assassin"

:''This article involves the survivor count of the refugees in the [[Re-imagined Series]].''

The number of surviving Colonial citizens and military in the fleet was provided at intervals throughout the first season on a whiteboard on ''[[Colonial One]]'', and in one instance spoken aloud in dialogue. In the second season, this number appears in the opening credits of every episode (sometimes jokingly referred to as the "Countdown to Extinction"), and displays limited omniscience, updating itself to reflect the deaths on [[Kobol (RDM)|Kobol]] early in that season. This page collects the figures available thus far, cross-referenced with date information from [[Timeline (RDM)]].

==Graph==
[[Image:Survivors.png]]
:''All dates past Day 51 are estimates.''

==Data==

'''Day 6'''
*'''[[33]]'''
**50,298 - initial estimate.
**49,998 - after revising count downward by 300.
**49,317 - after second revision downward (cut scene, DVD)
**47,972 - after destruction of the ''[[Olympic Carrier]]''.
**47,973 - one birth on the ''[[Rising Star (RDM)|Rising Star]]''.

'''Day 10'''
*'''[[Water]]'''
**47,958

'''Day 15'''
*'''[[You Can't Go Home Again]]'''
**47,958 - has not been updated to reflect the deaths of 13 pilots in "[[Act of Contrition]]"

'''Day 25'''
*'''[[Flesh and Bone]]'''
**47,954 - after deaths of a marine and three crew in "[[Litmus]]", discovery of [[Ellen Tigh]] one week prior to "[[Tigh Me Up, Tigh Me Down]]", and the disappearance of [[Shelly Godfrey]] in "[[Six Degrees of Separation]]". [[Aaron Doral#Scorpia Traveler copy|Aaron Doral (Scorpia Traveler copy)]] was apparently not included among the fleet's population. The events of "Act of Contrition" have (still) not been accounted for.

'''Day 28'''
*'''[[Tigh Me Up, Tigh Me Down]]'''
**47,905 - given by Dr. [[Gaius Baltar]], possibly excluding himself and [[Sharon Valerii (Galactica copy)|Sharon Valerii]]. Unusually large reduction for a 3-day period.

'''Day 48'''
*'''[[Colonial Day]]'''
**47,898 - immediately after [[Valance]]'s death. Includes four viper pilots killed in "[[The Hand of God (RDM)|The Hand of God]]".

'''Day 50'''
*'''[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part I]]'''
**47,897

'''Day 51'''
*'''[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part II]]'''
**47,887 - ten-person crew of [[Raptor 3]].
*'''[[Scattered]]'''
**47,875 - [[Sharon Valerii|"Boomer" Valerii]] was probably removed after her assassination attempt. Probably includes the death of [[Karma]] in "[[Kobol's Last Gleaming, Part I]]", since the on-screen total appears to include deaths on Kobol.

*'''[[Valley of Darkness]]'''
**47,874 - [[Tarn]]
*'''[[Fragged]]'''
**47,862 - [[Flyboy]], [[Socinus]], others in Cylon boarding action.

'''Day 54 (est.)'''
*'''[[Resistance (episode)|Resistance]]'''
**47,861 - [[Crashdown]]

'''Day 60 (est.)'''
*'''[[The Farm]]'''
** 47,857 - Four civilians aboard the ''[[Gideon]]''.

'''Dates Unknown'''
*'''[[Home, Part I]]'''
** 47,858 - Return of [[Karl Agathon|Helo]], who was presumed dead. Caprica Valerii is not included in the count.
*'''[[Home, Part II]]'''
** 47,855 - Death of [[Elosha]] and a [[Laura Roslin faction|faction]] [[Wikipedia: Redshirt (character)|redshirt]].
*'''[[Final Cut]]'''
** 47,853 - Death of [[Meier]] and unnamed Tom Zarek henchman in "Home, Part II".

'''Day 86 (est.)
*'''[[Flight of the Phoenix]]'''
** 47,853 - No change since "Final Cut".

'''Dates Unknown'''
*'''[[Pegasus (episode)|Pegasus]]'''
**49,605 - After the return of the battlestar ''[[Pegasus (RDM)|Pegasus]]'', a dramatic increase of 1,752 over the previous count. The change is shown in the opening credits of [[Pegasus (episode)|Pegasus]], since the ship appeared in the "teaser" before the opening credits.
*'''[[Resurrection Ship, Part I]]'''
**49,604 - Death of [[Alastair Thorne]].
*'''[[Resurrection Ship, Part II]]'''
**49,604 - No change since "Resurrection Ship, Part I".

'''Day 189'''
*'''[[Epiphanies]]'''
** 49,598 - Deaths of Admiral [[Helena Cain]] and an unnamed marine guard on ''Pegasus''. The remaining casualty count of four is conspicuously low given the scope of the [[Battle of the Resurrection Ship|battle]] depicted in the previous episode.

'''Dates Unknown'''
*'''[[Black Market]]'''
**49,597 - The death of a suicide bomber on the ''[[Daru Mozu]]''. Based on dialogue, the attack took the lives of the bomber and at least two civilians. This may have been offset by births in between the two episodes. The death of [[Jack Fisk]] was shown in the teaser of [[Black Market]], and should be counted in the opening credits.
*'''[[Scar]]'''
**49,593 - Deaths of Commander [[Jack Fisk]], Fisk's assassin, [[Phelan]], and one other person, presumably [[Beano]]. It is unclear where the death of Beano, the first of four pilots killed by Scar is counted. Since much of the episode, including the deaths of the four pilots killed by Scar, is shown in flashback.

*'''[[Sacrifice]]'''
**49,590 - Deaths of three pilots killed by Scar: [[Reilly]], [[Brent Baxton|Brent "BB" Baxton]], and [[Joseph Clark|Joseph "Jo-Jo" Clark]].

'''c. Day 210'''
*'''[[The Captain's Hand]]'''
**49,584 - Deaths of [[Sesha Abinell]], [[Vinson]], [[Page]], [[Chu]], and two unnamed marines, and [[Billy Keikeya]]. Sesha Abinell's husband Ray was killed during a Cylon attack ten weeks prior to this episode, but it does not appear to have been counted. It may have been offset by a birth.

'''c. Day 240'''
*'''[[The Captain's Hand]]'''
**49,579 - Deaths of [[Richard Bayer|Buster]], [[Lyla|Shark]], the two-man crew of [[Raptor 314]], and Commander [[Barry Garner]] (seen near the end on the white board).

'''Between c. Day 240 and c. Day 270'''
*'''[[Razor]] ( Present events)'''
**49,579 - confirms closing count from "The Captain's Hand".

'''c. Day 270'''
*'''[[Downloaded]]'''
**49,579 - confirms closing count from "The Captain's Hand". The count is either not updated to reflect the deaths of [[Kendra Shaw]] and [[Dasilva]] in "[[Razor]]" or there were births that offset those deaths.
*'''[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part I]]'''
**49,579 - No change since "[[Downloaded]]". It is unclear how the birth of [[Hera Agathon|Hera]] is counted. Her birth appears to be offset by the death of [[Maya]]'s child. Maya's child seems to be the one seen in the incubator, and whose ashes are spread out of a Raptor by Helo and Tyrol.
'''c. Day 280'''
*'''[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]'''
**49,550 - [[Raptor 612]] jumped into a mountain on Caprica. This could account for four people: A pilot, an ECO, and two marines.

'''During the Settlement of New Caprica (from c. Day 280 to c. Day 660)'''
*'''[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]'''
**After the "One Year Later" time jump later in the episode, the population of New Caprica City is given as 39,192. This includes separated military personnel, but does not include military and civilians in the small fleet orbiting the planet.
*'''[[Precipice]]'''
**According to Lee Adama, about 2,000 civilians escaped with the ships in orbit of New Caprica.
**Adama also states that both ''Galactica'' and ''Pegasus'' are at half strength (this can't be taken literally).
***A careful [[crew tally]] establishes that, at full strength, ''Galactica'' is crewed by about 2,808 people and ''Pegasus'' by about 2,445.
***The same tally indicates that immediately prior to the one-year jump, ''Galactica'' was crewed by about 2,600 people, and ''Pegasus'' by about 1,700. At half-strength, this puts the minimum number of military personnel at about 2,200.
**This puts our estimate of the total human population at roughly 43,400 (39,192 + 2000 + 2200)
**Subtracting from the figure of 49,550 given in "Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II", this means that the total population fell by about 6150 people during the one-year gap. The majority of these deaths probably happened as a result of the destruction of ''[[Cloud Nine]]'' and the surrounding vessels.
:''For a confirmation of these estimates with more accurate numbers see the "[[Crossroads, Part I]]" section''

'''During the Occupation of New Caprica (from c. Day 660 to c. Day 798)'''
*An unknown number of people died in the insurgency and Cylon retaliation. However this must be offset by additional births during this four month time span. Accurately tracking the population numbers is impossible at this point, but known casualty figures are given below:
*'''c. Day 729'''
**'''[[Battlestar Galactica: The Resistance]]''' - 10 people are killed at the temple, including [[Nora]].
*'''c. Day 794'''
**'''[[Occupation]]''' - [[Tucker Clellan]] bombs the [[New Caprica Police]] graduation ceremony, killing 33 humans.
*'''c. Day 796'''
**'''[[Precipice]]''' - suicide bombing at the power substation kills 4 humans. Three resistance fighters die in the ambush at [[Breeders Canyon]].
*'''c. Day 798'''
**'''[[Exodus, Part II]]''' - numerous casualties during the evacuation of New Caprica, including [[Maya]].

'''c. Day 800'''
*'''[[Collaborators]]'''
**41,435 - Fleet population as of the third day of the Second Exodus. Given the above numbers, the death toll of the resistance and the [[Battle of New Caprica]] is about 2000 people. Given the total in the next episode, this figure does not reflect the 13 collaborators executed by the [[Circle]] between this episode and the last.
**Several hundred children might have been born on New Caprica. Since they are also included in the count, the Fleet has lost more older and able-bodied people than apparent.

'''c. Day 830'''
*'''[[Torn]]'''
**41,422 - Figure now reflects the 13 collaborators executed by the [[Circle]]. No deaths occur in this episode.

'''c. Day 831'''
*'''[[A Measure of Salvation]]'''
**41,420 - Two unseen deaths.

'''c. Day 935'''
*'''[[Hero]]'''
**41,421 - [[Daniel Novacek|Daniel "Bulldog" Novacek]] escapes from Cylon custody and joins the population of the fleet.

'''c. Day 950'''
*'''[[Unfinished Business]]'''
**41,422 - One birth.

'''Dates Unknown'''
*'''[[The Passage]]'''
**41,420 - Two unseen deaths.

*'''[[The Eye of Jupiter]]'''
**41,402 - Eighteen deaths from radiation exposure, including the skeleton crews of the ''[[Adriatic]]'' and the ''[[Carina]]''. This also includes [[Louanne Katraine|Louanne Katraine]].

*'''[[Rapture]]'''
**41,401 - One unseen death.

*'''[[Taking a Break from All Your Worries]]'''
**41,403 - Deaths of [[Hillard]] and [[Omar Fischer]]. [[Hera Agathon]], [[Gaius Baltar]] and [[Caprica-Six]] join the Fleet's population, in addition to one possible birth.

*'''[[The Woman King]]'''
**41,401 - Two unseen deaths.

*'''[[A Day in the Life]]'''
**41,398 - Deaths of [[Willie King]] and two other Sagittarons; possibly more if offset by births.

*'''[[Dirty Hands]]'''
**41,400 - Two births.

*'''[[Maelstrom]]'''
**41,400 - No net change.

*'''[[The Son Also Rises]]'''
**41,399 - Death of [[Kara Thrace]] in the prior episode, and [[Alan Hughes]] at the end of this episode's teaser. Hughes' death is either not counted, offset by a birth, or Thrace's death is not counted.

*'''[[Crossroads, Part I]]'''
**Unknown, as there is no intro for this episode.
**The following numbers are given during Baltar's trial by [[Cassidy]]: 44,035 - the number who settled on New Caprica; 38,838 - the number the day after the escape. However the number of escapees can only refer to the ''civilian'' population of the Fleet, and despite talking specifically about the people who settled on New Caprica, this number includes the ''total'' population, including those in orbit.
**This contradictory wording is a writing error, but interpreting them slightly differently confirms the estimates from "[[Precipice]]":
***41,435 (Collaborators) - 38,838 = 2,597 (the military personnel in the Fleet)
***44,035 - 39,192 (the inhabitants of [[New Caprica City]]) = 4,835 (the total population left in orbit)
***4,835 - 2,597 = 2,238 (in "Precipice" Lee Adama refers to roughly 2,000 civilians who escaped New Caprica)
***49,550 (count in "[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]") - 39,192 - 4,835 = 5,523 (the death toll prior to the occupation, mostly incurred with the destruction of ''[[Cloud Nine]]'')
***49,550 - 5,523 - 41,435 = 2,592 (the causalities of the Cylon occupation and the [[Battle of New Caprica|escape from New Caprica]])
:'''Note:''' While this number of military personnel fits with the estimate about their strength during the settlement of New Caprica, it still does not fit with the depiction of overcrowding on ''Galactica'' after the escape from the planet and the destruction of ''Pegasus'', since the battlestar was crewed with approximately 2,600 people to begin with. The number of civilians should therefore be lower.

*'''[[Crossroads, Part II]]'''
**Unknown, as there is no intro for this episode.

*'''[[He That Believeth In Me]]'''
**39,698 - A loss of 1,700, accounting for the 600 deaths on ''[[Pyxis]]'', 1,101 deaths on other ships damaged during the [[Battle of the Ionian Nebula]], such as the ''[[Space Park]]'' and ''[[Astral Queen]]'' and the return of the assumed dead [[Kara Thrace]].

*'''[[Six of One]]'''
**39,676 - 22 unaccounted for deaths from the previous episode. These may be people who were wounded in the battle, but died of their injuries later.

==Analysis==
*The detonation of a nuclear warhead on ''[[Cloud Nine]]'' by the [[Number Six]] copy, [[Gina]], is the first time a ship has been destroyed since the destruction of the ''[[Olympic Carrier]]''.
*The ships ''[[Adriatic]]'' and ''[[Carina]]'' are also destroyed in "[[The Passage]]", however with only skeleton crews aboard.
*Since the end of "[[33]]", the Fleet's population has been dying off at a fairly steady rate of approximately 2.1 persons per day. At this rate, the Fleet would be completely depopulated within a few decades.
*First season survivor counts are available from [[Laura Roslin|President Roslin's]] whiteboard aboard ''[[Colonial One]]''. Second season survivor counts are included in the opening titles, as well as the presidential whiteboard.
*In "[[The Captain's Hand]]" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of ''Pegasus''), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years. If this refers only to excess mortality, it would mean an average rate of roughly 7.5 people a day. It may be that Baltar's estimate considered more factors, such as labor shortages resulting in famine, which would complicate this model, resulting in the death rate exponentially increasing over time.
*The loss of 8,115 people between "[[Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II]]" and "[[Collaborators]]" is the highest net loss from one opening title count to another.

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Survivor count