Survivor count: Difference between revisions

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*Since the end of "[[33]]", the fleet's population has been dying off at a fairly steady rate of approximately 2.1 persons per day. At this rate, the fleet will be completely depopulated in 62 years. If the show's failure to supply concrete dates continues during the remainder of the second season, perhaps the "[[Wikipedia:Half-life|half-life]]" of the fleet's population can be used to "[[Wikipedia: Radiocarbon dating|carbon date]]" future episodes.
*Since the end of "[[33]]", the fleet's population has been dying off at a fairly steady rate of approximately 2.1 persons per day. At this rate, the fleet will be completely depopulated in 62 years. If the show's failure to supply concrete dates continues during the remainder of the second season, perhaps the "[[Wikipedia:Half-life|half-life]]" of the fleet's population can be used to "[[Wikipedia: Radiocarbon dating|carbon date]]" future episodes.
*First season survivor counts are available from the whiteboard aboard [[Colonial One]]. Second season survivor counts are included in the opening titles, as well as the whiteboard.
*First season survivor counts are available from the whiteboard aboard [[Colonial One]]. Second season survivor counts are included in the opening titles, as well as the whiteboard.
*In "[[The Captain's Hand]]" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of ''Pegasus''), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years.  Of course, they would run out of food, and not have enough people to fully crew their ships and defend them from the Cylons some time before this point.  According to Baltar's rate figure, that means that the survivor count would decrease at a rate of roughly 7.5 people a day.
*In "[[The Captain's Hand]]" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of ''Pegasus''), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years.  If this refers only to excess mortality, it would mean an average rate of roughly 7.5 people a day. It may be that Baltar's estimate considered more factors, such as labor shortages resulting in famine, which would complicate this model, or that Baltar was simply lying to set President Roslin up.


[[Category:A to Z]]
[[Category:A to Z]]
[[Category:Colonial History]]
[[Category:Colonial History]]
[[Category:RDM]]
[[Category:RDM]]

Revision as of 15:58, 8 June 2006

The number of surviving Colonial citizens and military in the fleet was provided at intervals throughout the first season on a whiteboard on Colonial One, and in one instance spoken aloud in dialogue. In the second season, this number appears in the opening credits of every episode (sometimes jokingly referred to as the "Countdown to Extinction"), and displays limited omniscience, updating itself to reflect the deaths on Kobol early in that season. This page collects the figures available thus far, cross-referenced with date information from Re-Imagined Series Timeline.

Graph[edit]

All dates past Day 51 are estimates.

Data[edit]

Day 6

  • 33
    • 50,298 - initial estimate.
    • 49,998 - after revising count downward by 300.
    • 49,317 - after second revision downward (cut scene, DVD)
    • 47,972 - after destruction of the Olympic Carrier.
    • 47,973 - one birth on the Rising Star.

Day 10

Day 15

Day 25

Day 28

Day 48

Day 50

Day 51

Day 54 (est.)

Day 60 (est.)

Dates Unknown

Day 86 (est.)

Date Unknown

Day 189

  • Epiphanies
    • 49,598 - Deaths of Admiral Helena Cain and an unnamed marine guard on Pegasus. The remaining casualty count of four is conspicuously low given the scope of the battle depicted in the previous episode.

Date Unknown

  • Black Market
    • 49,597 - The death of a suicide bomber on the Daru Mozu. Based on dialogue, the attack took the lives of the bomber and at least two civillians. This may have been offset by births in between the two episodes. The death of Commander Jack Fisk was shown in the teaser of Black Market, and should be counted in the opening credits.
  • Scar
    • 49,593 - Deaths of Commander Jack Fisk, Fisk's assasin, Phelan, and one other person, presumably Beano. It is unclear where the death of Beano, the first of four pilots killed by Scar is counted. Since much of the episode, including the deaths of the four pilots killed by Scar, is shown in flashback.
  • Sacrifice
  • The Captain's Hand
    • 49,584 - Deaths of Sesha Abinell, Vinson, Page, Chu, and two unnamed marines, and Billy Keikeya. Sesha Abinell's husband Ray was killed during a Cylon attack ten weeks prior to this episode, but it does not appear to have been counted. It may have been offset by a birth.
    • 49,579 - Deaths of "Buster", "Shark", the two-man crew of Raptor 314, and Commander Barry Garner (seen near the end on the white board).

Nine Months after the Mini-Series and Ten Weeks After Resistance

  • Downloaded
    • 49,579 - confirms closing count from 'Captain's Hand'.
  • Lay Down Your Burdens, Part I
    • 49,579 - No change since Downloaded. It is unclear how the birth of Hera is counted. Her birth appears to be offset by the death of Maya's child. Maya's child seems to be the one seen in the incubator, and whose ashes are spread out of a Raptor by Helo and Tyrol.
  • Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II
    • 49,550 - Raptor 612 jumped into a mountain on Caprica. This could account for four people: A pilot, an ECO, and two marines.

Analysis[edit]

  • The detonation of a nuclear warhead on Cloud Nine by the Model Six Cylon known as Gina in Lay Down Your Burdens, Part II is the first time a ship has been destroyed since the Olympic Carrier was destroyed in 33.
  • Since the end of "33", the fleet's population has been dying off at a fairly steady rate of approximately 2.1 persons per day. At this rate, the fleet will be completely depopulated in 62 years. If the show's failure to supply concrete dates continues during the remainder of the second season, perhaps the "half-life" of the fleet's population can be used to "carbon date" future episodes.
  • First season survivor counts are available from the whiteboard aboard Colonial One. Second season survivor counts are included in the opening titles, as well as the whiteboard.
  • In "The Captain's Hand" (roughly in the region of Day 250-60), Dr. Baltar estimated that (factoring in the arrival of Pegasus), given the survivor count's current rate of decline, never increasing, the human race will simply go extinct in 18 years. If this refers only to excess mortality, it would mean an average rate of roughly 7.5 people a day. It may be that Baltar's estimate considered more factors, such as labor shortages resulting in famine, which would complicate this model, or that Baltar was simply lying to set President Roslin up.